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Introduction: is data mining a methodological problem?
Backhouse, Roger; Morgan, Mary - In: Journal of Economic Methodology 7 (2001) 2, pp. 171-181
This survey of the symposium papers argues that the problem of data mining should be of interest to both practicing econometricians and specialists in economic methodology. After summarizing some of the main points to arise in the symposium, it draws on recent work in the philosophy of science...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009219440
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Physical and Metaphysical Counterfactuals: Evaluating Disjunctive Actions
Pearl, Judea - In: Journal of Causal Inference 5 (2017) 2
Abstract The structural interpretation of counterfactuals as formulated in Balke and Pearl (1994a,b) [ 1 , 2 ] excludes …{or}~X=x_2)$ . In contrast, the closest-world interpretation of counterfactuals (e.g. Lewis (1973a) [ 3 ]) assigns truth values … process of “mass-shifting” among possible worlds, to define disjunction in structural counterfactuals. We show that every …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014610862
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Tests of Policy Ineffectiveness in Macroeconometrics
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron P. - CESifo - 2014
realisations of the outcome variable of interest and counterfactuals based on no policy intervention, using only the pre …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877883
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Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron P - Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics - 2014
The policy innovations that followed the recent Great Recession, such as unconventional monetary policies, prompted renewed interest in the question of how to measure the effectiveness of such policy interventions. To test policy effectiveness requires a model to construct a counterfactual for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886268
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Tests of Policy Ineffectiveness in Macroeconometrics
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron P - Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics - 2014
realisations of the outcome variable of interest and counterfactuals based on no policy intervention, using only the pre …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886286
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Conditional belief types
Di Tillio, Alfredo; Halpern, Joseph Y.; Samet, Dov - In: Games and Economic Behavior 87 (2014) C, pp. 253-268
We study type spaces where a player's type at a state is a conditional probability on the space. We axiomatize these spaces using conditional belief operators, examining three additional axioms of increasing strength. First, introspection, which requires the agent to be unconditionally certain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010931186
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Hypothetical knowledge and counterfactual reasoning
Halpern, Joseph Y. - In: International Journal of Game Theory 28 (1999) 3, pp. 315-330
used conditional logic to model counterfactuals, hypothetical knowledge cannot be reduced to conditional logic together …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005375527
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Age, Health and Life Satisfaction Among Older Europeans
Angelini, Viola; Cavapozzi, Danilo; Corazzini, Luca; … - In: Social Indicators Research 105 (2012) 2, pp. 293-308
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009402814
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MANAGING EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY : A COMPARATIVE COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSIS OF SINGAPORE 1994 TO 2003
Wilson, Peter; Ren, Henry Ng Shang - East Asian Bureau of Economic Research (EABER) - 2006
The objective of this paper is see how well Singapores exchange rate regime has coped with exchange rate volatility before and after the Asian financial crisis by comparing the performance of Singapores actual regime in minimising the volatility of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009363991
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Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron P. - Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA) - 2012
This paper is concerned with ex ante and ex post counterfactual analyses in the case of macroeconometric applications where a single unit is observed before and after a given policy intervention. It distinguishes between cases where the policy change affects the model’s parameters and where it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010552629