Over the past decade there has been remarkable progress in developing empirical micro-founded macroeconomic models for monetary policy analysis that feature coherence both to economic theory and to the data. In this paper, we estimate using Bayesian methods a second-generation micro founded...

We study a dynamic general equilibrium model with production, in which a representative agent chooses an unobservable effort level. We cast the problem as a continuous time principal agent model. We study the problem of a central planner (the principal) choosing optimal allocations of...

We examine optimal and other monetary policies in a linear-quadratic setup with relatively general forms of model uncertainty. The forms of uncertainty our framework encompasses include: simple i.i.d. model deviations; serially correlated model deviations; estimable regime-switching models; more...

We study the problem of a policymaker who seeks to set policy optimally in an economy where the true economic structure is unobserved, and policymakers optimally learn from their observations of the economy. This is a classic problem of learning and control, variants of which have been studied...

An ordinary differential equation (ODE) gives the mean dynamics that govern the convergence to self-confirming equilibria of self-referential systems under discounted least squares learning. Another ODE governs escape dynamics that recurrently propel away from a self-confirming equilibrium. In a...

Recently there has been a great deal of interest in studying monetary policy under model uncertainty. We develop new methods to analyze different sources of uncertainty in one coherent structure, which is useful for policy decisions. We show how to estimate the size of the uncertainty based on...