We show a standard model where the optimal tax reform is to cut labor taxes and leave capital taxes very high in the short and medium run. Only in the very long run would capital taxes be zero. Our model is a version of Chamleys, with heterogeneous agents, without lump sum transfers, an upper...

The booms and busts in U.S. stock prices over the post-war period can to a large extent be explained by fluctuations in investors' subjective capital gains expectations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive optimism at market peaks and excessive pessimism at market throughs....

Standard practice in Bayesian VARs is to formulate priors on the autoregres- sive parameters, but economists and policy makers actually have priors about the behavior of observable variables. We show how this kind of prior can be used in a VAR under strict probability theory principles. We state...

We present a decision theoretic framework in which agents are learning about market behavior and that provides microfoundations for models of adaptive learning. Agents are 'internally rational', i.e., maximize discounted expected utility under uncertainty given dynamically consistent subjective...

We study the effect on the growth of an economy of alternative financing opportunities in a stochastic growth model with incentive constraints. Efficient accumulation mechanisms are designed and computed for economies that differ in their incentive structure. We show that when borrowing is...

This paper develops the Parameterized Expectations Approach (PEA) for solving nonlinear dynamic stochastic models with rational expectations. The method can be applied to a variety of models, including models with strong nonlinearities, sub-optimal equilibria, and many continuous state...

In this paper the authors explore the ability of simple monetary models with bounded rationality to account for the joint distribution of money and prices. They impose restrictions on the size of the mistakes agents can make in equilibrium and argue that countries with high inflation are likely...

We explore the accumulation of assets in the presence of limited insurance against idiosyncratic shocks, borrowing constraints and endogenous labor productivity due to the so-called "nutrition curve". We show that in such an environment, any stationary equilibrium is characterized by a polarized...