This paper considers the relationship between congruence and encompassing. Congruence is defined formally, and though it is not testable directly, it can be tested indirectly via tests of misspecification. Empirically more than one model can appear congruent, but that which encompasses its...

Part I. Identification and Efficient Estimation: 1. Incredible structural inference Thomas J. Rothenberg; 2. Structural equation models in human behavior genetics Arthur S. Goldberger; 3. Unobserved heterogeneity and estimation of average partial effects Jeffrey M. Wooldridge; 4. On specifying...

Unpredictability arises from intrinsic stochastic variation, unexpected instances of outliers, and unanticipated extrinsic shifts of distributions. We analyze their properties, relationships, and different effects on the three arenas in the title, which suggests considering three associated...

Since the objective of economic policy is to change target variables in the DGP, when economic policy analysis uses an econometric model, it is important that the model delivers reliable inferences about policy responses in the DGP. This requires that the model be congruent and encompassing, and...

Unpredictability arises from intrinsic stochastic variation, unexpected instances of outliers, and unanticipated extrinsic shifts of distributions. We analyze their properties, relationships, and different effects on the three arenas in the title, which suggests considering three associated...