We develop and apply a set of hypothesis tests with which to study changes in the angular distribution of points in delay space. Crack and Ledoit (1996) plotted daily stock returns against themselves with one day's lag. (This might be described as a plot in delay space). The graph shows these...

This paper discusses two alternative two-part models for fractional response variables that are defined as ratios of integers. The first two-part model assumes a Binomial distribution and known group size. It nests the one-part fractional response model proposed by Papke and Wooldridge (1996)...

Although economic processes and systems are in general simple in nature, the underlying dynamics are complicated and seldom understood. Recognizing this, in this paper we use a nonstationary-conditional Markov process model of observed aggregate data to learn about and recover causal influence...

This paper proposes plug-in bandwidth selection for kernel density estimation with discrete data via minimization of mean summed square error. Simulation results show that the plug-in bandwidths perform well, relative to cross-validated bandwidths, in non-uniform designs. We further find that...

The SAR model is widely used in spatial econometrics to model Gaussian processes on a discrete spatial lattice, but for large datasets, fitting it becomes computationally prohibitive, and hence, its usefulness can be limited. A computationally-efficient spatial model is the spatial random...

A large number of nonlinear conditional heteroskedastic models have been proposed in the literature. Model selection is crucial to any statistical data analysis. In this article, we investigate whether the most commonly used selection criteria lead to choice of the right specification in a...

In modelling macroeconomic time series, often a monthly indicator of global real economic activity is used. We propose a new indicator, named World steel production, and compare it to other existing indicators, precisely the Kilian's index of global real economic activity and the index of OECD...

It is well known that in a vector autoregressive (VAR) model Granger non-causality is characterized by a set of restrictions on the VAR coefficients. This characterization has been derived under the assumption of non-singularity of the covariance matrix of the innovations. This note shows that...

To capture location shifts in the context of model selection, we propose selecting significant step indicators from a saturating set added to the union of all of the candidate variables. The null retention frequency and approximate non-centrality of a selection test are derived using a...

This paper discusses nonparametric kernel regression with the regressor being a \(d\)-dimensional \(\beta\)-null recurrent process in presence of conditional heteroscedasticity. We show that the mean function estimator is consistent with convergence rate \(\sqrt{n(T)h^{d}}\), where \(n(T)\) is...