Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between theory and practice.” Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now the International Journal of Forecasting. The Institute emphasizes empirical comparisons of...

An avalanche of articles has described the testing of a time series for the presence of unit roots. However, economic model builders have disagreed on the value of testing and how best to operationalise the tests. Sometimes the characterization of the series is an end in itself. More often, unit...

Forecasting researchers, with few exceptions, have ignored the major forecasting controversy facing the world in the early 21st Century: namely, whether and by how much the earth is warming; and the role of climate modelling in reaching any conclusions on this challenging topic. In contrast,...

Successful ICT policy analyses and implementation rely on a sufficient knowledge of how and why consumers adopt new technologies. For instance, analysts of the digital divide may need to quantify the factors that are perceived to drive this ICT usage gap. This paper focuses on understanding the...

Aggregate models of innovation diffusion do not capitalise on valuable consumer adoption dynamics that emerge from consumer surveys. This is despite other modelling strategies which suggest that such dynamics may be very important to the process of diffusion. We present a segmental Gompertz...

Prediction of demand is a key component within supply chain management. Improved accuracy in forecasts directly affects all levels of the supply chain, reducing stock costs and increasing customer satisfaction. In many application areas, demand prediction relies on statistical software which...

The most recent three issues of Foresight featured Steve Morlidge’s encyclopedic rendition of “Guiding Principles” for an organization’s forecasting process. The guiding principles were divided into five classifications: Foundation Principles, Design Principles, Process Principles,...