Poskitt and Skeels (2005) provide a new approximation to the sampling distribution of the IV estimator in a simultaneous equations model, the approximation is appropriate when the concentration parameter associated with the reduced form model is small. We present approximations to the sampling...

In this paper we consider the problem of making inference on a structural parameter in instrumental variables regression when the instruments are only weakly correlated with the endogenous explanatory variables. Adopting a local-to-zero assumption as in Staiger and Stock (1994) on the...

Empirical research confirms the existence of volatility spillovers across national stock markets. However, the models in use are mostly statistical ones. Much less is known about the actual transmission mechanisms; theoretical literature is scarce, and so is empirical work trying to estimate...

This paper applies a recently proposed structural vector autoregressive model identification method to an established, previously unidentified theoretical model of stock market volatility spillovers. The structural model is identified and can be estimated with the method of maximum likelihood....

Spurious regression phenomenon has been recognized for a wide range of Data Generating Processes: driftless unit roots, unit roots with drift, long memory, trend and broken-trend stationarity, etc. The usual framework is Ordinary Least Squares. We show that the spurious phenomenon also occurs in...

Spurious regression phenomenon has been recognized for a wide range of Data Generating Processes: driftless unit roots, unit roots with drift, long memory, trend and broken-trend stationarity, etc. The usual framework is Ordinary Least Squares. We show that the spurious phenomenon also occurs in...

There are three crucial mathematical system concepts in Finance, which are either being confused or misapplied - uncertainty, complexity and rank. First, the concept of epistemic uncertainty is sufficient for modeling and the concept of probability is unnecessary. This is illustrated by...

The diversification benefit provided by real estate investment trusts (REITs) is of great importance to investors, practitioners and academics. This benefit critically relies on the correlation properties between REIT returns and the factors used to explain REIT returns. Recent studies have...

We use a unique dataset of bond downgrades from a niche rating company that has been found to be reacting faster to publicly available information than its competitors. Using regime-switching models we propose risk measures to quantify stock return disturbances (distress costs) associated with...

This paper examines the rise of the VAR (Vector AutoRegressive) approach from a historical perspective. It shows that the VAR approach arises from a fusion of the Cowles Commission tradition and time series statistical methods, catalysed by the rational expectations (RE) movement, that the...