The changing relationships between the G-7 countries are examined through VAR models for quarterly growth, estimated over sub-periods and using a rolling data window. Trivariate models are employed, each including the US and a European (E15) aggregate. The results show that conditional...

This article empirically analyses real per capita GDP growth for six Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Mexico, Venezuela) in terms of real exchange rate depreciations, inflation and US interest rates, focussing on the role of the real exchange rate. We find evidence...

This paper investigates the movement of manufacturing inventories and production over the business cycle to arrive at an asymmetric structural equilibrium-correction model. Initially cross-correlation coefficients and deepness and steepness tests for skewness are utilized to present descriptive...

We examine the patterns and determinants of business-cycle correlations among eleven UK regions and six euro-zone countries over the 1966-1997 period, using GMM to allow for sampling error in comparing estimated correlations. The British business cycle is found to be persistently out of phase...

Following on from the work of Birchenhall, Jessen, Osborn & Simpson (1999) on predicting US business cycle regimes we apply the same methodology to construct a one period ahead model of classical business cycle regimes in the UK. Birchenhall et al generated the regime data from the NBER dating...