We study how the use of judgement or quot;add-factorsquot; in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in standard macroeconomic...

We study how determinacy and learnability of global rational expectations equilibrium may be affected by monetary policy in a simple, two country, new Keynesian framework. The two blocks may be viewed as the U.S. and Europe, or as regions within the euro zone. We seek to understand how monetary...

We study a simple, microfounded macroeconomic system in which the monetary authority employs a Taylor-type policy rule. We analyze situations in which the self-confirming equilibrium is unique and learnable according to Bullard and Mitra (2002). We explore the prospects for the use of large...

June 26, 2014. Remarks. "Income Inequality and Monetary Policy: A Framework with Answers to Three Questions." C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations, New York, N.Y.

July 17, 2014. Presentation. "Fed Goals and the Policy Stance." Owensboro in 2065 Summit, Owensboro, Ky.

Since the introduction of rational expectations, there have been issues with multiple equilibria and equilibrium selection. We study the connections between determinacy of rational expectations equilibrium and learnability of that equilibrium in a general class of purely forward‐looking...

September 27, 2014. Presentation. "Discussion of 'Time Consistency and the Duration of Government Debt,' by Bhattarai, Eggertsson, and Gafarov." SNB Research Conference, Zurich.

October 2, 2014. Presentation. "The FOMC: Ahead on Results, Behind on Rates." Tupelo, Miss.

October 9, 2014. Opening Remarks. Given at the 39th Annual Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fall Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Welcoming Remarks. Given at the Second Annual Community Banking in the 21st Century, The Federal Reserve System and Conference of State Bank Supervisors (CSBS), St. Louis.