This paper studies monthly RPIX inflation in the UK in the context of the change to inflation targeting in 1992. Our empirical models take account of the strong and changing seasonal pattern of inflation, while also focusing on inflation persistence and Phillips curve explanations. In both...

This paper examines the roles of domestic and international variables in predicting expansion and recession regimes of the growth rate cycle for Germany, France, Italy and the UK over the period 1972 to 2003, using a range of real and financial variables as leading indicators. The output gap,...