An updated supply of storage equation is estimated to reflect recent developments in the theoretical and empirical literature. Among the findings is an inverse relationship between storage cost adjusted price spread and a proxy measure of convenience yield, and a curvilinear relationship between...

An updated supply of storage is estimated to reflect recent developments in the literature. This study adds a measure of price variability, specifically implied volatility. It also adds a measure of the call‐option value to sell stocks before the end of the storage period, specifically a...

The costs of corn- and soybean-based feeds compose a substantial proportion of the variable costs faced by both mainstream and emergent confined livestock producers. This research develops a method to provide a joint distribution of prices of corn and soybean meal at a future time. Black's 1976...

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/19/04.

A variety of crop revenue insurance programs is now available. These programs require measurement of price risk. This article investigates the appropriateness of distributional assumptions underlying current and proposed alternative actuarial methods. Our results find that prices are best...

Replaced with revised copy of paper 1/16/07.

Six popular crop yield distributions are compared to determine which best describes yield fluctuations out-of-sample. For 183 crop and county combinations, each distribution is estimated and ranked according to its log-likelihood function observed at out-of-sample observations. A semiparametric...

The central part of pricing agricultural commodity futures options is to find appropriate stochastic process of the underlying assets. The Black's (1976) futures option pricing model laid the foundation for a new era of futures option valuation theory. The geometric Brownian motion assumption...

Econometric models of commodity prices have been estimated for more than 80 years, but both structural and time series models require ad hoc assumptions to capture all the features of commodity price series. Commodities can be broadly divided into two categories: storable and non-storable. The...