We examine the out-of-sample predictive power of real time linear monetary models with possible nonlinear adjustment in forecast errors for the GBP/USD exchange rates. Real time revisions of U.K. and U.S. monetary aggregates and output are significant; therefore the use of final data on...

This paper extends the framework provided by Aksoy, De Grauwe, Dewachter (2000). We first provide an econometric analysis of the stabilising properties of the monetary policy in the EMU countries within an open economy framework and obtain optimal feedback rules for monetary policymaking. In a...

We provide a detailed classification of core and non-core liabilities for the Turkish banking system à la Shin and Shin (2010). We further carry out a two-stage liquidity stress test similar to Van Den End (2010) where we simulate inflow and outflow factors as well as the network topology of...

We explore the asymmetric behaviour of inflation around the target level for inflation-targeting emerging markets. The first rationale behind this asymmetry is the asymmetric policy response of the central bank around the target. Central banks could have a stronger bias towards overshooting...

In this paper, we produce short term forecasts for the inflation in Turkey, using a large number of econometric models. In particular, we employ univariate models, decomposition based approaches (both in frequency and time domain), a Phillips curve motivated time varying parameter model, a suite...

Stationarity of the current account is suggested as an indicator of the current account sustainability in the literature. We explore the presence of mean-reverting behaviour in current accounts of 24 European countries, using linear and nonlinear unit root tests. Our results suggest mean...

Theoretically, the risk premium captured by Credit Default Swap (CDS) and bond yield spreads should be equal. However, data reveals a significant difference between the two spreads. We explore the presence of a mean-reverting behavior in this difference (CDS-bond basis), for selected emerging...

[TR] Ulke kredi riskinin alternatif gostergeleri olan kredi temerrut takasi (CDS) orani ve EMBI+ulke farki degerlerinin teoride arbitraj imkanina yer vermeyecek sekilde esit olmasi beklense de; iki veri donemsel olarak oldukca farkli hareketler gosterebilmektedir. Bu not, soz konusu farkin...

Under a conventional policy rule, a central bank adjusts its policy rate linearly according to the gap between inflation and its target, and the gap between output and its potential. Under the opportunistic approach to disinflation a central bank controls inflation aggressively when inflation is...