The term structure of interest rates is often summarized using a handful of yield factors that capture shifts in the shape of the yield curve. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model for volatility dynamics in the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve that simultaneously...

This paper examines the impact that a currency target zone has on short-term interest rates. For a number of countries in the European Monetary System, we characterize the short rate using a regime-switching model that allows fbr a differently parameterized mean-reverting square-root process in...

Aggregate stock prices, relative to virtually any indicator of fundamental value, soared to unprecedented levels in the 1990s. Even today, after the market declines since 2000, they remain well above historical norms. Why? We consider one particular explanation: a fall in macroeconomic risk, or...

This paper tests a geography and growth model using regional data for Europe, the US, and Japan. We set up a standard geography and growth model with a poverty trap and derive a log-linearized growth equation that corresponds directly to a threshold regression technique in econometrics. In...

Statistical Process Control (SPC) is a scientific approach to quality improvement in which data are collected and used as evidence of the performance of a process, organisation or set of equipment. One of the SPC techniques, the cumulative sum (CUSUM) method, first developed by E.S. Page (1961),...

The analysis of price transmission between raw and processed agricultural products in transition countries is complicated by the frequently changing conditions on their way from plan to market. We utilise a Markov-switching vector error correction model to allow for multiple regime shifts in the...

In this study, we examine the regime shifts and volatility in stock market returns of eighteen European stock markets and the USA and utilize these regimes in asset allocation and risk management contexts. Using a Markov regime switching model, the study finds strong evidence of regime switching...

In the current post-crisis era, the events with the highest probability to move the financial markets are the announcements of financial authorities concerning the quantitative easing decisions. The objective of this paper is to build an analysis of the existence of connections among the GBP...

It is sometimes claimed that the coverage of collective bargaining in Germany is considerably understated because of orientation, a process whereby uncovered firms profess to shadow the wages set under sectoral bargaining. Yet importantly, at a time when collective bargaining proper has been in...

The toolkit adapts a first-order perturbation approach and applies it in a piecewise fashion to solve dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints. Our examples include a real business cycle model with a constraint on the level of investment and a New Keynesian model subject to the zero...