This paper recasts Temin's (1976) question of whether monetary forces caused the Great Depression in a modern time series framework. We analyze money-income causalities and predict U.S. output in a recursive Bayesian framework, allowing for information updating and time-varying coefficients. The...

The prominent role of monetary policy in the U.S. interwar depression has been conventional wisdom since Friedman and Schwartz [1963]. This paper presents evidence on both the surprise and the systematic components of monetary policy between 1929 and 1933. Doubts surrounding GDP estimates for...

The prominent role of monetary policy in the U.S. interwar depression has been conventional wisdom since Friedman and Schwartz (1963). This paper presents evidence on both the surprise and the systematic components of monetary policy between 1929 and 1933. Doubts surrounding GDP estimates for...

This paper examines the role of currency and banking in the German financial crisis of 1931 for both Germany and the U.S. We specify a structural dynamic factor model to identify financial and monetary factors separately for each of the two economies. We find that monetary transmission through...

This paper examines the role of currency and banking in the German financial crisis of 1931 for both Germany and the U.S. We specify a structural dynamic factor model to identify financial and monetary factors separately for each of the two economies. We find that monetary transmission through...

Germany's Great Depression of the early 1930s started in 1929 with a sudden stop in the current account. It ended after a foreign debt default that unfolded in several stages from 1931 to 1933. This chapter reviews Germany's macroeconomic history between the gold-based stabilisation of 1924 and...

This paper explores the hypothesis that the sources of economic and financial crises differ from non-crisis business cycle fluctuations. We employ Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregressions (MS-BVARs) to gather evidence about the hypothesis on a long annual U.S. sample running from 1890 to...

This paper develops the Regime Dependent Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (RD-GARCH) model and applies it to a daily index of returns on U.S. equities. The RD-GARCH model is different from previous models in that it combines Hentschel's single specification that nests...

This is a course material for an introductory course in Probability and Statistics for Engineering and Management. It is part of some course notes for my courses in Spanish on that subject. The draft of the book is Apuntes de Probabilidad y Estadiacute;stica para Ingenieriacute;a y...

This paper reviews the genesis and early development of macro-modelling for the IMF's World Economic Outlook from the report's inception up to the early 1990s. Models covered include the Multilateral Exchange Rate Model, World Trade Model, Minimod, Multimod Marks 1 and 2, the Disaggregated...