Several authors have recently investigated the predictability of exchange rates by fitting a sequence of long-horizon error-correction equations. We show by means of a simulation study that, in small to medium samples, inference from this regression procedure depends on the null hypothesis that...

This paper presents a method to test the volatility predictions of the textbook asset-pricing exchange rate model, which imposes minimal structure on the data and does not commit to a choice of exchange rate “fundamentals.” Our method builds on existing tests of excess volatility in asset...

This paper challenges the conventional view that foreign exchange risk premiums are small, not volatile, and unrelated to macroeconomic variables. For the Italian lira (1987-94), unconditional risk premiums—constructed using survey data to measure exchange rate expectations—are found to be...

When constructing hedged interest rate arbitrage portfolios for basket currencies, two issues arise: first, how are the unknown future basket weights optimally forecasted from past exchange rate data? And, second, how is risk—in terms of the conditional variance of expected profits from the...

This paper investigates the behavior of Korean trade flows during the last three decades and presents estimates of aggregate export and import equations. In particular, it considers different choices for scale and price variables and assesses the relative merits of these alternative...

This paper investigates the behaviour of Korean trade flows during the last three decades, and presents estimates of aggregate export and import equations. In particular, it considers different choices for scale and price variables, and assesses the relative merits of these alternative...

We present tests of excess volatility of exchange rates that impose minimal structure on the data and do not commit to a choice of exchange rate "fundamentals." Our method builds on existing volatility tests of asset prices, combining them with a procedure that extracts unobservable fundamentals...

The authors present tests of excess volatility of exchange rates which impose minimal structure on the data and do not commit to a choice of exchange rate "fundamentals." The method builds on existing volatility tests of asset prices, combining them with a procedure that extracts unobservable...

We use a time series modeling approach to address two related questions of interest to foreign-exchange market participants and policy makers dealing with basket currencies. First, how are unknown weights appropriately extracted from basket currencies? Second, how does one correctly account for...