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This paper provides a model for valuing stocks that takes into account the stochastic processes for earnings and interest rates. Our analysis differs from past research of this type in being applicable to stocks that have a positive probability of zero or negative earnings. By avoiding the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561702
The estimation of systematic risk (or 'beta') in central to the implementation of the Capital Asset Pricing Model and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005487292
economics and their connection to risk and uncertainty. Risk-neutral valuation, a direct consequence of Black-Scholes model …, restricts the range of individual and subjective uncertainty by putting a price on replicable risk, thereby conferring to modern …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005558854
This paper investigates the dynamics in the simple present discounted value asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005795331
assumptions of risk neutral pricing. In several ways the numeraire portfolio is the “best” performing portfolio and cannot be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004984601
This paper provides evidence that aggregate returns on commodity futures (without the returns on collateral) are predictable, both in-sample and out-of-sample, by various lagged variables from the stock market, bond market, macroeconomics, and the commodity market. Out of the 32 candidate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010907043
Using the prices of crude oil futures contracts, we construct the term structure of crude oil convenience yields out to one-year maturity. The crude oil convenience yield can be interpreted as the interest rate, denominated in barrels of oil, for borrowing a single barrel of oil, and it measures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010960394
the way to evaluate the present value of the pay offs or cash flows discounted for risk and time lags. The difficulty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010543306
Expected returns vary when investors face time-varying investment opportunities. Longrun risk models (Bansal and Yaron … 2004) and no-arbitrage affine models (Duffie, Pan, and Singleton 2000) emphasize sources of risk that are not observable to … the econometrician. We show that, for both classes of models, the term structure of risk implicit in option prices can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010548355
Insider trading in the credit derivatives market has become a significant concern for regulators and participants. This paper attempts to quantify the problem. Using news reflected in the stock market as a benchmark for public information, we report evidence of significant incremental...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666591