A new time series model is proposed to describe observed asymmetries in postwar unemployment data. We assume that recession periods, when unemployment increases rapidly, are caused by unobserved positive shocks. The generating mechanism of these latent shocks is a censored regression model,...

Due to high and low volatility periods, time series of absolute returns experience temporary level shifts (that is, periods with outliers) which differ in length and size. In this paper we put forward a new model which can describe and forecast the location and size of such level shifts. Our so...

Due to high and low volatility periods, time series of absolute returns experience temporary level shifts (that is, periods with outliers) which differ in length and size. In this paper we put forward a new model which can describe and forecast the location and size of such level shifts. Our so...

High survey nonresponse in unemployment duration studies may have a strong effect on inference if the so called causal mechanism is present. A robust method of testing the causal nonresponse is proposed for data sets where survey information can be combined with complete administrative records....

En este trabajo se propone un modelo jerárquico Gamma para el estudio bayesiano de tiempos de desempleo con covariables utilizando técnicas de análisis de supervivencia. Se trata de un modelo de efectos aleatorios o modelo de poblaciones debido a su estructura jerárquica, que permite la...

Consumption patterns for chicken and eggs have changed since the outbreak of the H5N1 avian influenza (AI) throughout the world, but its potential impact on demand has not been thoroughly unveiled. Our study examines some important factors influencing behavioral changes and estimates their...

We study a random effects censored regression model in the context of repeated games. Introducing a feedback variable into the model leads to violation of the strict exogeneity assumption, thus rendering the random effects estimator inconsistent. Using the example of contributions to a public...

While much of the literature on cross section dependence has focused mainly on estimation of the regression coefficients in the underlying model, estimation and inferences on the magnitude and strength of spill-overs and interactions has been largely ignored. At the same time, such inferences...