This paper investigates the claim made by Kehoe and Prescott (2002) that Switzerland and New Zealand experienced 'great depressions' in the last two decades. We question the appropriateness of the measure used by Kehoe and Prescott (GDP per working-age person) and propose a more accurate measure...

After conceptual clarification of "international business cycle" and a review of the literature, a new indicator is proposed. This indicator refers to two time series only and allows for an interna-tionally comparable quantification of a country's position in the business cycle. We then...

The finance-growth nexus is discussed, and a framework for empirical analysis is formulated. Based on data for 93 countries from 1960–1990, a growth equation is estimated. It includes the standard regressors as well as a new proxy for financial activity and interaction effects of the latter...

This article presents a multi-sectoral composite indicator for the Swiss GDP growth rate, targeting a lead of two quarters. The in-sample period ranges from 1991 to 2002 and 14 data points are reserved as out of sample to assess the forecasting performance. The results appear promising, in terms...

After conceptual clarification of international business cycle and a review of the literature, a new indicator is proposed. This indicator refers to two time series only and allows for an internationally comparable quantification of a country's position in the business cycle. We then calculate...

The quot;law and finance theoryquot; predicts that the common law system provides the best basis for financial development and economic growth, followed by Scandinavian and German origin civil law and finally French origin civil law. This paper summarises the key points of the theory as well as...

To clarify the causal links between financial activity and economic growth, three theoretical models are analyzed and a LISREL structural equation path model is estimated. In the modeling part, poverty traps result from large fixed costs or high proportions of real investment to run a financial...

This text presents the economic forecast released by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich on 13 June 2014. After an introduction describing the starting points and crucial assumptions underlying the forecast, we summarise the key results for Switzerland. Then we turn to the...