We investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of Japanese stocks. The particular emphasis of this paper is an assessment of the performance of long memory time series models in comparison to their short-memory counterparts. Since long memory models should...

Multi-fractal processes have been proposed as a new formalism for modelling the time series of returns in finance. The major attraction of these processes is their capability of generating various degrees of long-memory in different powers of returns - a feature that has been found to...

This note reconsiders divergent results on the extremal behaviour of German stock returns that have been published recently. In particular, investigations of this issue have arrived at different conclusions regarding the finiteness of the second moment of the return distributions. Here we apply...

We present a stochastic simulation model of a prototype financial market. Our market is populated by both noise traders and fundamentalist speculators. The dynamics covers switches in the prevailing mood among noise traders (optimistic or pessimistic)as well as switches of agents between the...

This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982). Using insights on the behavior of multiplicative stochastic processes, we demonstrate that the tails of the unconditional distribution emerging from such bubble processes...

Multi-fractal processes have been proposed as a new formalism for modeling the time series of returns in finance. The major attraction of these processes is their capability of generating various degrees of long-memory in different powers of returns - a feature that has been found to...

The economics profession appears to have been unaware of the long build-up to the current worldwide financial crisis and to have significantly underestimated its dimensions once it started to unfold. In our view, this lack of understanding is due to a misallocation of research efforts in...

This article estimates a simple univariate model of expectation or opinion formation in continuous time adapting a ‘canonical’ stochastic model of collective opinion dynamics (Weidlich and Haag, 1983; Lux, 1995, 2009a). This framework is applied to a selected data set on survey-based...