In this paper, we contribute to the current debate on the Italian pension system by analyzing the impact of social security reforms, in terms of both budgetary implications and distributional effects. This is done by simulating the effects of three hypothetical reforms, plus the effects of the...

In this paper we describe the cumulative distribution function of excess returns conditional on a broad set of predictors that summarize the state of the economy. We do so by estimating a sequence of conditional logit models over a grid of values of the response variable. Our method uncovers...

Unlike the value at risk, the expected shortfall is a coherent measure of risk. In this paper, we discuss estimation of the expected shortfall of a random variable Yt with special reference to the case when auxiliary information is available in the form of a set of predictors Xt. We consider...

Reliable measures of poverty are an essential statistical tool for public policies aimed at reducing poverty. In this article we consider the reliability of income poverty measures based on survey data which are typically plagued by missing data and measurement error. Neglecting these problems...

A relevant question for the organization of large scale research assessments is whether bibliometric evaluation and informed peer review where reviewers know where the work was published, yield similar results. It would suggest, for instance, that less costly bibliometric evaluation might - at...