Three Essays on Stock Market SeasonalityHyung-Suk Choi136 pagesDirected by Dr. Cheol S. EunIn chapter 1, we examine seasonality in returns to style portfolios, which serve as important benchmarks for asset allocation, and investigate its implications for investment. In doing so, we consider...

A discussion of how new financial instruments have made accurate seasonal adjustment of monetary data more difficult since 1980.

Empirical tests of the production-smoothing hypothesis have yielded mixed results. In this paper, Donald Allen looks for and finds evidence of seasonal production smoothing in 15 out of 25 manufacturing series and eight out of 10 retail series, using detrended seasonally unadjusted data. The...

In a world where time series show clear seasonal fluctuations, rational agents will take account of those fluctuations in planning their own behavior. Using seasonally adjusted data to model behavior of such agents throws away information and introduces possibly severe bias. Nonetheless it may...

The paper discusses a new, fully recursive approach to the adaptive modeling, forecasting and seasonal adjustment of nonstationary economic time-series. The procedure is based around a time variable parameter (TVP) version of the well known “component” or “structural” model. It employs a...

An essay on the effect that seasonal money supply fluctations have on the measurement of M1 and on Federal Reserve money supply management, with a discussion of the X-11 adjustment method and suggestions for improving it.