This paper proposes an analytic framework for the reliability assessment of the automated payments systems used by the Federal Reserve Banks. The failure/recovery behavior of the system currently in operation is modeled as a continuous-time Markov process with varying levels of detail, and the...

Financial crises remain a recurring problem despite, or perhaps, as some suggest, because of, extensive innovation in capital markets over the past several decades. Crisis interventions are fraught with trade-offs: What are the costs of doing nothing? What is the probability that markets will...

Predictions of firm-level credit spreads based on the current spot and forward credit spreads can be significantly improved upon by using the information contained in the shape of the creditspread curve. However, the current credit-spread curve is not a sufficient statistic for predicting future...

We empirically test whether SBA-guaranteed lending has a greater impact on economic performance in markets with a high percentage of potential minority small businesses. This hypothesis is predicated on priors related to three overlapping assumptions. These three assumptions are: (1) The classic...

In this paper we empirically test whether the Small Business Administration's main guaranteed lending program - the 7(a) program - has a greater impact on economic performance in low income markets than in others. This hypothesis is predicated on our previous research (Craig, Jackson, and...

From 1883 to 1892, the circulation of national bank notes in the United States fell nearly 50 percent. Previous studies have attributed this to supply-side factors that led to a decline in the profitability of note issue during this period. This paper provides an alternative explanation. The...

The guaranteed lending programs of the Small Business Administration (SBA) are large and growing rapidly. The SBA's fiscal year 2008 performance budget calls for $25 billion in guaranteed loans for small businesses - a new record for the agency. Some critics of SBA programs suggest they do not...

This paper studies at the forbearance bet taken by policy makers at the end of the 1970s. We define forbearance as the failure of regulators to enforce book capital standards at the end of 1979. By comparing the cost of prompt regulatory intervention (defined here as closure or reorganization of...

The collapse of the Ohio Deposit Guarantee Fund in March 1985 provides a laboratory for examining the financial market's belief in the incentive-conflict model proposed by Kane (1989). Research in this area has yet to examine the stock returns of federally insured institutions during that period...