Preliminary and delayed Colombian GDP reports are replaced with optimal in-sample now-casts of true" GDP figures derived from a model for data revisions. The new GDP time series is augmented with optimal out-of-sample forecasts and back-casts of the "true" GDP figures derived from the same...

This paper analyses the effects of sterilised, intraday foreign exchange market operations (non-discretionary and discretionary) on foreign exchange returns and volatility in four inflation targeting economies in Latin America. The distribution of exchange rates during intervention and...

In this paper we estimated a volatility model for COP/US under two different samples, one containing the information before the “discretional interventions” started, and the other using the whole sample. We use a nonparametric approach to estimate the mean and “volatility smile” return...

This paper presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of inflation targeting in small open economy. We calibrate the model to the Colombian economy and present the response of some macroeconomic variables to different types of shocks that are relevant for emerging economies. We also...

The authors propose a short run model for the monetary transmission mechanism in which the output gap is modelled as an unobserved variable. By estimating this model using maximum likelihood on a Kalman Filter, the authors find an estimate of the unobserved output gap as well as its estimation...

This paper shows that the Colombian sovereign risk (EMBI?Colombia) is mainly determined by international investors’ risk appetite, whose response is non?linear and depends on the government fiscal stance. It is also shown that the relationship between these variables experienced an important...

The current implementation of the Fan Chart displays equal tail probability bands and do not take into account that the variable of interest may be subject to data revision. In this note I propose the use of Highest Probability Density, HPD, bands and include flexibility to display the risks...

El propósito de este trabajo es determinar la importancia relativa de los costos de liquidez de los bancos dentro de los costos totales asociados a un cierto nivel de reservas. Este componente del costo total está determinado por la probabilidad que enfrenta un banco, en cada instante del...

A pesar de que en Colombia se acepta la intuición de que "el nivel medio de la inflación anual no cambia durante lapsos de tiempo muy largos", la afirmación contraria de que esta "tiene una raíz unitaria" aparece con frecuencia en la literatura empírica. Una explicación a tal...

Due to the fact that many reliable indicators of further inflationary pressures do not seem to work anymore, finding whether or not wages Granger cause prices is an important concern for policymaking. However, international evidence on the relationship between wages and prices does not show...