This study proposes a more robust estimation of the implied volatility in the FX market, offers a possible explanation to the observed quot;smilequot; in implied volatilities based on a quot;clientele effectquot;, and tests the predictability of future volatilities in the FX market. We employ...

This paper proposes a new class of GARCH-jump in mean models to test the presence of time varying risk premia associated with normal and extreme news events. The model allows for a dynamic jump component with autoregressive jump intensity, long-range dependence in volatility dynamics, and...

Using intra-day data, this paper investigates the contribution to the price discovery of Euro and Japanese Yen exchange rates in three foreign exchange markets based on electronic trading systems: the CME GLOBEX regular futures, E-mini futures, and the EBS interdealer spot market. Contrary to...

In this paper we propose a simple and easy-to-use method for computing accurate estimate (in closed form) of the double barrier hitting time distribution of a mean-reverting lognormal process, and discuss its application to pricing exotic options whose payoffs are contingent upon barrier hitting...

Prices of currency options commonly differ from the Black-Scholes formula along two dimensions: implied volatilities vary by strike price (volatility smiles) and maturity (implied volatility of at-the-money options increases, on average, with maturity). We account for both using Gram-Charlier...

Risk reversals are a combination of options from which price information about market expectations of future exchange rates can be extracted. This paper describes a procedure for estimating the market's perceived probability distribution of future exchange rates from the prices of risk reversals...

The forward premium puzzle (FPP) is the negative correlation between the forward premium and the realized exchange rate return at maturities of a month and beyond. Some recent evidence shows that at maturities of multiple years and at the highest intra day frequency the correlation is positive...

Lecture notes for a short course on FX option valuation. Includes: - Mathematical framework for FX valuation - Handling the smile and term structure for vanilla options (calls and puts): --- Interpolation issues and techniques --- Handling business time --- Handling market conventions - Pricing...

This paper describes a method of extracting the risk-neutral probability distribution of future exchange rates from option prices. In foreign exchange markets interbank option pricing conventions make possible reliable inferences about risk-neutral probability distributions with relatively...

We document the behavior of over-the-counter currency option prices across moneyness, maturity, and calendar time on two of the most actively traded currency pairs over the past eight years. We find that on any given date, the conditional risk-neutral distribution of currency returns can show...