We present and analyse an optimizing model which explains the counter-intuitive effects of fiscal policy in terms of expectations. If government spending follows an upward-trending stochastic process, which the public believes may fall sharply when it reaches specific `target points', then...

We show theoretically that income redistribution benefits borrowing-constrained individuals more than is implied by standard relative-income and uninsurable-risk considerations. Empirically, we find in international opinion-survey data that younger and lower-income individuals express stronger...

Interest rates on consumer lending are lower when funds are tied to purchase of a durable good than when they are made available on an unconditional basis. Further, dealers often choose to bear the financial cost of their customers’ credit purchases. This Paper interprets this phenomenon in...

The radical liberalization of foreign trade in Central and Eastern Europe since 1989 has been a key part of the economic reform and has been accompanied by a full-scale geographical reorientation of international trade from East to West. Increased trade with the EU has been associated with...

This paper proposes a model of endogenous growth with diversifiable uncertainty, irreversible investment decisions and imperfect labour mobility. Obstacles to labour reallocation lower the operating profits earned by existing firms and increase the cost of creating new ones, thus reducing...

Recently developed models of exchange rate dynamics emphasize the expectational effects of infrequent intervention. This paper proposes a stylized probabilistic framework in which such effects can be studied along with realistic concerns about the sustainability of the intervention policy. In...

Using data from 17 OECD countries over the 1960-96 period and a simple theoretical framework, we investigate the impact of institutions on the relative employment of youth, women, and older individuals. Empirically, the employment prospects of these groups are especially affected by poorly...

The effect of labour turnover costs on average employment in a partial equilibrium model of labour demand, depends on the form of the revenue function, on the rates of discount and labour attrition, and on the relative size of hiring and firing costs. If discount and attrition rates are strictly...

This paper studies the distributive effects of growth when different agents' income is drawn from accumulated and non-accumulated factors of production in different proportions. It also notes that political interactions may contribute to determine factor shares and growth when income sources are...

This paper reviews theoretical and empirical aspects of the interaction between Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union and recent labour market developments. Policies meant to increase and stabilize labour incomes also tend to reduce employment and productivity: theory suggests that the latter...