We set up and estimate a structural unobserved components open economy model for the rate of unemployment and the real exchange rate in Sweden. This approach enables us to simultaneously determine changes in both cyclical and equilibrium rates. Our results show that the Natural Rate/NAIRU has...

Os principais determinantes da variação da inflação no período 1954-95 parecem ser a inflação externa (ou a sua variação) e a variação da taxa de câmbio efectiva do escudo. Verifica-se uma relação de longo prazo entre a taxa de inflação e a taxa de variação dos custos...

O estudo das causas da inflação portuguesa no período 1954-95 com base em dados anuais, através da abordagem de Johansen permite-nos concluir que a variação da inflação portuguesa é essencialmente determinada pela variação da inflação externa e pela variação da taxa de câmbio...

This paper studies the dynamic behavior of inflation and unemployment in Spain during the period 1964-1997. In particular, we analyze the implications of high persistence in both unemployment and inflation dynamics for inference regarding the size of Phillips trade-offs and sacrifice ratios in...

New-Keynesian macroeconomic models typically assume that any long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment is ruled out. While this appears to be a reasonable characterization of the US economy, it is less clear that the natural rate hypothesis necessarily holds in a European country...

This paper explores the issues arising when the reduced form cointegrating vectors are obtained from an incomplete VAR with omitted endogenous variables. Reconsidering some Wickens' (1996) results, we show that the specification of an incomplete VAR model, based on variables of the reduced form...

This paper examines the relationship amongst unemployment and interest rates, taxes on household expenditures and exchange rates for Brazil and Mexico. The theoretical framework is based on concepts or corporate finance and firm's profit-maximizing choice. The empirical analysis is derived from...

A estimação da relação entre os custos unitários de trabalho e a taxa de desemprego no período 1954-1995 com base em dados anuais, através da abordagem de Johansen, permite-nos concluir que a variação dos custos unitários de trabalho é função decrescente da variação da taxa de...

This paper makes the following original contributions to the literature. (1) We develop a simpler analytical characterization and numerical algorithm for Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions that can be used for models that are overidentified, just-identified, or...

This paper provides new insights into expectation-driven cycles by estimating a structural VAR with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. We use survey-based expectations of the unemployment rate to measure expectations of future developments in economic activity. We find that the...