Dieser Beitrag entwickelt ein Verfahren, das die Komplexität der Endvermögensberechnung von Aktienanlagen unter Berücksichtigung der Besteuerung und regelmäßiger Portfolioumschichtung erheblich reduziert. Bisher ist eine vergleichbar präzise Berechnung wegen rekursiver Abhängigkeiten sehr...

In the first part of this thesis, we introduce a new methodology for stress-test exercises. Our approach allows to consider richer stress-test exercises, which assess the impact of a modification of the whole distribution of asset prices’ factors, rather than focusing as the common practices...

We study the economic importance of time-varying bond risk premia in a life-cycle consumption and portfolio-choice problem for an investor facing short-sales and borrowing constraints. On average, the investor is able to time bond markets only as of age~45. Tilts in the optimal asset allocation...

Low-yielding currencies (relative to dollar interest rate and based on annual data) represent a strong hedging tool for a US investor in the event of a slowdown of the US economy, as shown in Lustig and Verdelhan (2007). In this paper we show that such a conclusion is far more general, holding...

We develop and implement a method for comparing the measurement error in estimates of the expected rate of return on equity. We combine the Campbell [1991] and Vuolteenaho [2002] return decomposition with the econometric method described in Garber and Klepper [1980] and Barth [1991] to infer...

I describe a model of earnings and earnings growth and I demonstrate how this model may be used to obtain estimates of the expected rate of return on equity capital. These estimates are compared with estimates of the expected rate of return implied by commonly used heuristics - viz., the PEG...

This paper surveys some recent developments in the theory of capital markets. Particular emphasis is given to two strands of the literature. The first covers some recent and fundamental extensions to the theory of risk aversion and the demand for risky assets. Theses papers are concerned with...

We test two forms of consumption-based asset pricing model on American bond market data. The first is the standard C-CAPM, the other one is derived from Abel (1999) who refers to an external habit. The term premium embedded in the term structure of interest rate is linked with the conditional...

We document a novel and striking annual cycle in the U.S. Treasury market, with a variation in mean monthly returns of over 80 basis points from peak to trough. We show that this seasonal Treasury return pattern does not arise due to macroeconomic seasonalities, seasonal variation in risk, the...

Due to the near unit-root behavior of interest rates, the movements of individual interest-rate series are inherently difficult to forecast. In this paper, we propose an innovative way of applying dynamic term structure models to forecast interest-rate movements. Instead of directly forecasting...