We propose a seasonal cointegration model (SECM) for quarterly data which includes variables with different numbers of unit roots and thus needs to be transformed in different ways in order to yield stationarity. A Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to investigate the consequences of...

In this paper we examine whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy in the short run. Our analyses primarily concern the growth rates of real GDP but we also evaluate forecasts of other variables such as unemployment, price and wage inflation,...

This paper investigates the small sample size and power properties of the likelihood ratio test in the seasonal error correction model. Two specifications of the model at the annual frequency are analyzed. One is more restricted (RS), designed for the particular case of 'synchronous...

Appreciation of prices in the housing market is analysed in this paper with different statistical tests. Using Ljung-Box test statistics for monthly data for a sample that starts in the beginning of 1981 and ends in the mid 1993 the EMH, efficient market hypothesis is rejected for nominal and...

The behavior of Swedish stock returns over short and long run horizons is analyzed. Using monthly data from 1919 to 1995 and, weekly and daily data for the 1980s and first part of the 1990s we hardly found any evidence of long run dependence. Using three different tests that are robust to short...

This paper presents a general likelihood-based framework for inference in panel-VAR models with cointegrating restrictions. The cointegrating relations are restricted to each cross-section while the rest of the model is unrestricted. The homogenous restriction of common cointegrating space is...