This paper is a re-examination of the benefits and limitations of decomposition and combination techniques in the area of forecasting, and also a contribution to the field, offering a new forecasting method. The new method is based on the disaggregation of time series components through the STL...

The single most crucial weakness of current macroeconometric modeling stems from the fact that modelers ‘quantify/estimate’ their structural modeldirectly, ignoring the fact that behind every structural model there is a statistical model whose validity vis-a-vis the data underwrites the...

This paper reviews whether and how the ongoing financial crisis has influenced central banking policy practice. Taking a historical perspective, it argues that throughout the existence of central banks the main objective has remained the same¯stability. What has been evolving over time, and has...

Using US data for the period 1959-2007, we identify sectoral productivity shocks and capital investment-specific shocks by employing a Vector Autoregression whose shock structure is disciplined by a general equilibrium model. Controlling for real and nominal factors, we find that capital...

A conjectural variations model is developed to measure market power in the banking industry. Unlike previous studies, which use complete cost function specifications in the modelling framework, this study defines marginal cost based on an opportunity cost, which is represented by the interest...

In this study, a modelling framework is proposed for evaluating the accuracy of forecasting combinations when the number of available forecasts is large and changes in time. Squared forecast errors are modelled with a semiparametric additive regression model where the linear part involves...

Η πρόσφατη χρηματοοικονομική κρίση ανέδειξε την ανάγκη ολοκληρωμένης προσέγγισης για πρόληψη και διαχείριση κρίσεων με στόχο τη διασφάλιση της...