This paper describes an algorithm to compute the distribution of conditional forecasts,i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on future paths of some othervariables, in dynamic systems. The algorithm is based on Kalman filtering methods andis computationally viable for large vector...

This paper uses a data-set including time series data on macroeconomic variables, loans, deposits and interest rates for the euro area in order to study the features of financial intermediation over the business cycle. We find that stylized facts for aggregate monetary and real variables are re-...

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are flexible time series models that can capture complex dynamic interrelationships among macroeconomic variables. However, their dense parameterization leads to unstable inference and inaccurate out-of- sample forecasts, particularly for models with many variables....

This paper analyses the impact on the macroeconomy of the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy implemented in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the Fall of 2008. We study in particular the effect of the expansion of the intermediation of transactions across central bank balance...

This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries’ business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP percapita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant...

In this paper, we construct a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model (BVAR) for the Euro Area that captures the complex dynamic inter-relationships between the main components of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Price (HICP) and their determinants. The model is estimated using Bayesian...

The recent recession has affected all countries around the world in an almost synchronous way. Interestingly, not only has it hit countries with bad macroeconomic fundamentals, but also those with AAA rating. The degree to which countries have been affected by the crisis, on the other hand, has...

This study evaluates the macroeconomic effects of Outright Monetary Transaction (OMT)announcements by the European Central Bank (ECB). Using high-frequency data, we find that OMTannouncements decreased the Italian and Spanish 2-year government bond yields by about 2percentage points, while...