Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Knowing the Fed’s objectives, their forecasts,...

Politicians, market participants, and economists have argued about whether the increased trading induced by the growth of index funds over the past decade is a cause of high commodity prices.

Adjusting for inflation, population growth, and a risk-free real interest rate shows there is still a substantial gap between the peak of household wealth in 2007 and the level today.

One look at recent Congressional Budget Office data shows how much estimates of the output gap can change as time passes.

This article presents global solutions to standard New Keynesian models with a zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate. Rather than focus on specific sequences of shocks, we provide the solution for all combinations of technology and discount factor shocks and a thorough...

This paper develops a monetary model with taxes to account for the apparently asymmetric and time-varying effects of energy shocks on output and hours worked in post-World War II U.S. data. In our model, the real effects of an energy shock are amplified when the monetary authority responds to...

This paper develops a monetary model with taxes to account for the apparently asymmetric and time-varying effects of energy shocks on output and hours worked in post-World War II U.S. data. In our model, the real effects of an energy shock are amplified when the monetary authority responds to...

Manufacturing jobs as a percentage of private employment has fallen by half—from about 21 percent in 1987 to less than 11 percent today. Yet, manufacturing output as a percentage of private output is cyclical with a fairly flat trend averaging about 14 percent.