This paper studies the importance of heterogeneous beliefs for the dynamics of asset prices. We focus on currency markets, where the absence of short-selling constraints allows us to perform sharper tests of theoretical predictions. We examine both option and underlying markets, so that we can...

The fiscal theory says that the price level is determined by the ratio of nominal debt to the present value of real primary surpluses. I analyze long-term debt and optimal policy in the fiscal theory. I find that the maturity structure of the debt matters. For example, it determines whether news...

This paper solves in closed-form a continuous time model of the nominal and real term structures of interest rates in a monetary economy with habit formation. A crucial property is that, unlike in affine specifications, the price of risk is not a constant multiple of the volatility of interest...

The world has a shortage of financial assets. Asset supply is having a hard time keeping up with the global demand for store of value and collateral by households, corporations, governments, insurance companies, and financial intermediaries more broadly. The equilibrium response of asset prices...

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with...

We explore the connection between money, banks, and aggregate credit. We start with a simple 'real' model without money, where banks make loans repayable in goods and depositors hold claims on the bank payable on demand in goods. Aggregate production may be delayed in the economy. If so, we show...

This paper derives closed-form solutions for asset returns, investment, consumption and inflation in an economy with multi-good Cobb-Douglas production and consumer preferences as in Epstein and Zin (1991). The implied solutions are relatively simple, with an index of aggregate marginal product...

The OLG model of Allais and Samuelson retains the methodological assumptions of agent optimization and market clearing from the Arrow-Debreu model, yet its equilibrium set has different properties: Pareto inefficiency, indeterminacy, positive valuation of money, and a golden rule equilibrium in...

This paper estimates a Bayesian VAR for the US economy which includes a housing sector and addresses the following questions. Can developments in the housing sector be explained on the basis of developments in real and nominal GDP and interest rates? What are the effects of housing demand shocks...

I obtain a slow response of prices and money, and a decrease in the quantity of money after interest rate shocks. Market segmentation causes the slow response. Endogenous segmentation causes the decrease in the quantity of money. I study two shocks: a permanent and a temporary increase in the...