Okun’s law can be a useful guide for monetary policy, but only if the natural rate of unemployment is properly measured.>

In the 1970s, the American Economic Association (AEA) was one of several professional associations to launch a summer program with the goal of increasing racial and ethnic diversity in its profession. In this paper we estimate the effectiveness of the AEA's program which, to the best of our...

Labor mismatch, also known as structural imbalance, can be defined as a poor match between the characteristics of unemployed workers and those required for vacant jobs. In the wake of the jobless recovery from the Great Recession, economists have sought to explain the coexistence of a high...

The famous"Dewey Defeats Truman" headline illustrates the importance of timely and accurate data. Agencies that compute economic indicators for the $14 trillion U.S. economy face a tough challenge: providing up-to-the minute results and ensuring the reliability of the data. This month's Page One...

This paper studies conditions under which demand-side shocks can generate realistic business cycles in RBC models. Although highly persistent demand shocks are necessary for generating procyclical investment, variable capacity utilization and habit formation can reduce the required degree of...

This paper reconsiders the welfare costs of inflation and the welfare gains from financial intermediation in a heterogeneous-agent economy where money is held as a store of value (as in Bewley, 1980). Because of heterogeneous liquidity demand, transitory lump-sum money injections can have...

It has long been argued in the history of economic thought that over investment through highly leveraged borrowing under elastic credit supply may generate large boom-bust business cycles. This paper rationalizes this idea in a dynamic general equilibrium model with infinitely lived rational...

Investment booms and asset "bubbles" are often the consequence of heavily leveraged borrowing and speculations of persistent growth in asset demand. We show theoretically that dynamic interactions between elastic credit supply (due to leveraged borrowing) and persistent credit demand (due to...

China's over 25% aggregate household saving rate is one of the highest in the world. One popular view attributes the high saving rate to fast-rising housing prices in China. However, cross-sectional data do not show a significant relationship between housing prices and household saving rates....