This paper develops a new measure of state and local fiscal sustainability called the "trend gap," which is based on socioeconomic and other fundamental factors and removes the short-term influence of the business cycle. The paper estimates the trend gap and finds that the nationwide per capita...

In response to the recent fiscal crisis, state governments in the United States have deeply cut aid, often by the same percentage across communities. This across-the-board approach ignores local fiscal disparities and places a larger burden on communities in worse underlying fiscal health. This...

We investigate the effects of political institutions on economic growth. We specifically explore this relationship while controlling for heterogeneity and model uncertainty. We use threshold regression (Hansen 2000) to search for possible nonlinearities and/or interaction effects with respect to...

We investigate the effects of political institutions on economic growth. We specifically explore this relationship while controlling for heterogeneity and model uncertainty. We use threshold regression (Hansen (2000)) to search for possible nonlinearities and/or interaction effects with respect...

Tephra fallout is an important type of hazard caused by volcanic eruption, and is also one of the main hazards at Changbaishan volcano, Northeast China. Numerical simulation is an effective approach to assess the dispersion of tephra fallout. According to the theory of dispersion model, we...

In this article we extend the results derived for scan statistics in Wang and Glaz (2014) for independent normal observations. We investigate the performance of two approximations for the distribution of fixed window scan statistics for time series models. An R algorithm for computing...

This paper studies racial and ethnic discrimination in discrete choices by real estate brokers using national audit data from the 2000 Housing Discrimination Study. It uses a fixed effects logit model to estimate the probability that discrimination occurs and to study the causes of...

In this paper, we propose a parametric model of implied variance which is a natural generalization of the SVI model. The model improves the SVI by allowing more flexibly the negative curvature in the tails which is justified both theoretically and empirically. The fitting of the model, comparing...