This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country can affect the GDP of other countries. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output fluctuations. The paper introduces a new specification...

The academic literature has focused largely on testing for long-run fiscal sustainability. In this exercise we formulate a flexible regression model that can be used to assess the sustainability of a more recent build-up of fiscal deficits and debt that would be of major concern to policy...

Temporal aggregation creates contemporaneous correlations, alters dynamic links and may distort causality inference. Since cointegration is invariant to temporal aggregation and implies Granger causality this paper presents a sign rule for causal inference and contemporaneous conditioning in...

Aided by strong economic growth the Singapore government has been able to keep both the tax rate and the government expenditure rate low and yet generate healthy budget surpluses year after year. Although the gap between the tax rate and the government expenditure rate is the obvious source of...

With the help of spectral and structural time series analyses it is found that the demand for electronics in the USA goes through a cycle with a period of about four to five years. Because of the synchronized nature of the electronics market, the global demand for electronics is likely to follow...

Most commonly used measures of housing affordability are essentially short-run indicators that compare current income with house prices or housing costs. Despite the emphasis in the literature on the importance of long-term affordability, researchers have not developed measures of lifetime...

Recurrent large fiscal deficits and accumulating public debt frequently ring alarm bells around the world on the sustainability of U.S. federal fiscal policy. The present-value borrowing constraint, which states that, for the fiscal policy to be sustainable the current debt stock should match...