An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical …

We report a mathematical result that casts doubt on the possibility of recalibration of probabilities using calibration …

hypotheses: (1) the confidence heuristic holds that more confidence increases credibility, and (2) the calibration hypothesis … asserts that overconfidence will backfire when others find out. Study 1 reveals that, consistent with the calibration …, accuracy, and calibration influence others. …

given to forecasting. This study considers the problem of long-range forecasting in a situation which is of growing … importance — forecasting sales for international markets.Many researchers appear to operate under the impression that causal … primarily upon naive models for sales forecasting since these models are simpler and less expensive than causal model.This study …

This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro … model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine … forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the one-month horizon being where micro and macro analysis begin to overlap …

Alternate Models for Forecasting Hedge Fund ReturnsMichael HoldenFaculty Sponsor: Gordon Dash, Finance and Decision … forecast methods in producing one-period ahead change-of-direction when forecasting the expected returns of various hedge fund …