This paper proposes an approach to estimating the relation between risk (conditional variance) and expected returns in the aggregate stock market that allows us to escape some of the limitations of existing empirical analyses. First, we focus on a nonparametric volatility measure that is void of...

Probably not. First, allowing the probabilities attached to the states of the economy to differ from their sample frequencies, the Consumption-CAPM is still rejected by the data and requires a very high level of Relative Risk Aversion (RRA) in order to rationalize the stock market risk premium....

A novel methodology in testing the long-run risks model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) is presented based on the observation that, under the null, the potentially latent state variables, long-run risk and the conditional variance of its innovation, are known affine functions of the observable...

We present evidence that shocks to household consumption growth are negatively skewed, persistent, countercyclical, and play a major role in driving asset prices. We construct a parsimonious model where heterogeneous households have recursive preferences and a single state variable drives the...

We study a broad class of asset pricing models in which the stochastic discount factor (SDF) can be factorized into an observable component and a potentially unobservable, model-specific, one. Exploiting this decomposition we derive new entropy bounds that restrict the admissible regions for the...

Probably not. First, allowing the probabilities attached to the states of the economy to differ from their sample frequencies, the Consumption-CAPM is still rejected by the data and requires a very high level of Relative Risk Aversion (RRA) in order to rationalize the stock market risk premium....

Probably not. First, allowing the probabilities of the states of the economy to differ from their sample frequencies, the consumption-CAPM is still rejected in both U.S. and international data. Second, the recorded world disasters are too small to rationalize the puzzle, unless one assumes that...

The predictability of the market return and dividend growth is addressed in an equilibrium model with two regimes. A state variable that drives the conditional means of the aggregate consumption and dividend growth rates follows different time-series processes in the two regimes. In linear...