We discuss a Levy multivariate model for financial assets which incorporates jumps, skewness, kurtosis and stochastic volatility. We use it to describe the behaviour of a series of stocks or indexes and to study a multi-firm, value-based default model. Starting from an independent Brownian...

We have developed a regime switching framework to compute the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall measures. Although Value at Risk as a risk measure has been criticized by some researchers for lack of subadditivity, it is still a central tool in banking regulations and internal risk management...

This paper examines whether investors receive a compensation for holding stocks with a strong sensitivity to extreme market downturns in a worldwide sample covering 40 different countries. I find that stocks with strong crash sensitivity earn higher average returns than stocks with weak crash...

We investigate whether investors receive compensation for holding stocks with strong systematic liquidity risk in the form of extreme downside liquidity (EDL) risk. Following the logic of Acharya and Pedersen (2005), we capture a stock's EDL risk by the lower tail dependence between (i)...

Simple time trend variables in factor demand models can be statistically powerful variables, but may tell the researcher very little. Even more complex specification of technical change, e.g. factor biased, are still the economentrician's measure of ignorance'' about the shifts that occur in the...

A viable safeguards system includes among other things the development and use of indices which trigger various courses of action. The usual limit of error calculation provides such an index. The classical approach is one of constructing tests which, under certain assumptions, make the...

As part of a study aimed at estimating suburban highway needs for year 2005, models were developed for forecasting daily vehicle miles of travel (DVMT) for urban areas and its distribution by highway functional class, urban location, and urban area size. A regression model combining both time...

Quantification of uncertainty in predictions of nuclear waste repository performance is a requirement of Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations governing the licensing of proposed geologic repositories for high-level radioactive waste disposal. One of the major uncertainties in these...

1991 was continued rapid growth for the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) as it broadened its interdisciplinary research into the organization, evolution and operation of complex systems and sought deeply the principles underlying their dynamic behavior. Research on complex systems--the focus of work at...