Drawing from the personal tape recordings made during the presidency of Richard Nixon, we uncover and report in this paper new evidence that Nixon manipulated Arthur Burns and the Federal Reserve Bank into creating a political business cycle that helped secure Nixon’s reelection victory in...

A variation of the Bernanke-Blinder credit-view model reveals that holding constant the money supply following various financial-sector shocks, including an autonomous drop in the money multiplier, is insufficient to prevent aggregate demand from decreasing.

The relationship between government size and the unemployment rate is investigated using a panel error-correction model that describes both the short-run dynamics and long-run determination of the unemployment rate. Using data from twenty OECD countries from 1970 to 1999 and after correcting for...

This paper examines the dynamic effects of government outlays on economic growth and the unemployment rate. Using vector autoregression and data from twenty OECD countries over three recent decades, we found: (1) positive shocks to government outlays slow down economic growth and raise the...

A variation of the Bernanke-Blinder credit-view model reveals that holding constant the money supply following various financial-sector shocks, including an autonomous drop in the money multiplier, is insufficient to prevent aggregate demand from decreasing.

The United States witnessed substantial growth in manufacturing and urban populations during the last half of the nineteenth century. To date, no convincing evidence has been presented to explain the shift in population to urban areas. We find evidence that capital intensity, particularly new...

The financial crisis and recession of 2008-2010 have witnessed the biggest reduction in money-supply multipliers in U.S. history. In contrast to what occurred during the Great Depression, the Fed has avoided decreases in monetary aggregates by dramatically increasing the monetary base. A...