The natural interest rate is of great relevance to central banks, but it is difficult to measure. We show that in a standard microfounded monetary model, the natural interest rate co-moves with a transformation of the money demand that can be computed from actual data. The co-movement is of a...

Empirical data show that firms tend to improve their ranking in the productivity distribution over time. A sticky-price model with firm-level productivity growth fits this data and predicts that the optimal long-run inflation rate is positive and between 1.5% and 2% per year. In contrast, the...

A huge body of empirical and theoretical literature has emerged on the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and international trade. In empirical studies the estimated impacts of exchange rate uncertainty on trade figures are at most weak and often ambiguous with respect to their...

The ongoing sovereign debt crisis and the manifold attempts to resolve it imply the possibility that inflation rates in countries of the euro area will differ from one another for an extended period of time. For instance, some propose that the North should accept inflation rates above the...

Empirical data suggest that new fi rms tend to grow faster than incumbent firms in terms of their productivity. A sticky-price model with learning-by-doing in new firms fi ts this data and predicts that for plausible calibrations, the optimal long-run inflation rate is positive and between 0.5%...

This paper examines the role of cross-sectional heterogeneity for estimating the euro's effect on euro-area trade. In the empirical analysis, the impact of trade costs on trade and the transition dynamics to the new monetary regime can vary cross-sectionally in trade sectors and country pairs....

This paper investigates if the euro's effect on euro-area trade differs across trade sectors and across country pairs, and to what degree heterogeneity matters for estimating the aggregate euro effect. Time-varying latent variables, which are specific to each sector in each country pair, control...