This paper examines the business cycle properties of capital goods trade in open economies. Capital good imports and exports are twice as volatile as investment. Equipment trade is asymmetric in that small countries are net importers. Countercyclical trade balances are associated with...

Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. dollar appreciate against other G-10 and emerging market...

The composition and cyclical properties of imports are similar in developed economies and emerging economies (EM) but this is not the case for exports. Unlike developed economies, (i) EM export few or only a selective set of capital goods and (ii) capital good and overall exports tend to be...

This paper assesses the vulnerability of emerging markets and their banks to aggregate shocks. We find significant links between banks' asset quality, credit and macroeconomic aggregates. Lower economic growth, an exchange rate depreciation, weaker terms of trade and a fall in debt-creating...

Three factors have characterized FX returns in the recent round of currency moves, all of which can be thought of as measures of risk: the size of short-term liabilities relative to reserves, the deterioration of the current account in 2005-2007, and the closeness of the relationship with...

Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. dollar appreciate against other G-10 and emerging market...