We evaluate the impact of persistence in volatility over the probability of default in Merton’s credit risk model. Our main conclusion is that a high degree of persistence, as it is observed in equity returns, implies a lower probability of default for those cases where firms possess a high...

In this paper we discuss various indicators of default for consumer loans in Chile. In particular, we propose an indicator based on write-offs, which can be interpreted as a probability of default. The proposed indicator replicates the level and the dynamic of the default frequency reported in a...

In this paper we compute the impact of the yield spread on output growth, based on a standard DSGE model. As it is supported by empirical literature, we found that yield spread can be used only to forecast output growth for short-term horizons (less than 2 years). Moreover, the size of that...

The discussion about the Interest Rate Ceiling (TMC) has generated several proposals that involve changing the current way of calculating this interest rate, which applies to consumer loans of amounts smaller than 200 UF and maturities of less than 90 days. In this paper we analyze the effect of...

In this paper I discuss the modeling of the yield in discrete time. The popular Nelson-Siegel model and the Vasicek-factors model are presented in the same framework then it is simple to compare them.