This paper considers the general equilibrium relationship between exchange rates and global imbalances. It emphasizes that the exchange rate is not a primitive but an equilibrium price determined by the policy mix. It uses extensions of the two-country Obstfeld-Rogoff model to analyze the...

This paper reviews the problems that must be resolved at the Intergovernmental Conference in 1996 to clear the way for European Monetary Union: locking in Germany's commitment to the project, and reconciling EMU with variable geometry. It reviews what we know about the costs and benefits of EMU...

An influential school of thought views the current international monetary and financial system as Bretton Woods reborn. Today, like 40 years ago, the international monetary system is composed of a core, which has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the currency used as international reserves,...

Protracted expansionary monetary policies in advanced countries have renewed the debate over policy options to cope with large capital inflows that drive credit expansions in emerging economies. In a forthcoming paper, we show that during capital inflow bonanzas credit grows more rapidly and its...

This paper examines how China's exports are affected by exchange rate shocks from countries that supply intermediate inputs to China. We build a simple small open economy model with intermediate goods trade to show that due to the intra-regional trade in intermediate goods, a devaluation of...

This paper uses hybrid models that combine economic fundamentals and micro-market variables to investigate the behaviour of US/Jamaica exchange rate. The co-integration analysis applied to post 2000 monthly data indicates, in contrast to previous studies done on Jamaica that these models give a...

The size and economic relevance of Europe may imply a new role for the EURO in the international financial markets. But will the EURO compete with the $US and the Yen for a place in the basket of international currencies? Will that induce a bipolar or indeed tri-polar system, and with what...

*The European Union will enter Stage Three of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999. The development of euro financial markets and thickness externalities in the use of the euro as means of payment will be the major factors determining the importance of the euro as an international currency....

Three of the most important recent facts in global macroeconomics - the sustained rise in the US current account deficit, the stubborn decline in long run real rates, and the rise in the share of US assets in global portfolio - appear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional wisdom and...

Based on basic financial models and reports in the business press, exchange rate movements are generally believed to affect the value of nonfinancial firms. In contrast, the empirical research on nonfinancial firms typically produces fewer significant exposures estimates than researchers...