This paper introduces nonlinearity and a structural break to the US forward-looking Taylor rule with a stock price gap, thereby alleviating the robustness problem that the linear Taylor rule is sensitive to minor changes of the sample period since 1991. The path of the time-varying inflation...

Robust GDP growth, declining unemployment, low and stable inflation, and a string of fiscal and current account surpluses -- it's a record to be envied. These outcomes in Canada owe much to sound macroeconomic policies, as well as to a favorable external environment. This book focuses on these...

The study discusses central bank’s and government’s behaviour in a small open economy with a strong autonomous monetary policy and fiscal policy restricted by fiscal policy rule. Composed model thus fully corresponds to the Czech reality, where the Czech National Bank’s independency is...

This Selected Issues paper for Indonesia uses a small structural macroeconomics model of the Indonesian economy to analyze the inflation outlook and monetary policy challenges. The Bank of Indonesia (BI) introduced its Inflation Targeting Framework in July 2005 with the goal to reduce inflation...

The swift and decisive policy response of Korea has contributed to an impressive economic recovery from the financial turmoil. Executive Directors welcomed the well-calibrated and gradual exit strategy while aiming to achieve strong and sustainable long-term economic growth. Directors welcomed...

This paper presents a simple structural model of inflation adapted for Nigeria based on the methodology of Berg, Karam, and Laxton. This approach allows different policy options to be considered systematically in a baseline forecasting exercise. The development and calibration of this model are...

The recent global financial crisis has exposed the limitations of a conventional inflation targeting framework in insulating an economy from all shocks, and demonstrated that its rigid application may aggravate the effect of shocks on output and inflation. Possible refinements to the inflation...

This Selected Issues paper for the Republic of Korea focuses on the role of monetary policy in the current context of slowing growth and rising inflation pressures. Korea has not remained immune to the global slowdown, and with the cycle turning downward, the trade-off between inflation and...

This Selected Issues paper discusses Romania’s modeling monetary policy. A simple Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) for Romania has been designed to help in the preparation of the IMF staff’s forecasts and policy assessments. A major advantage of this approach is that...