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conditional variances determine the persistence of the transmitted volatility innovations. In particular, the effect of a foreign …This paper analyzes volatility spillovers in multivariate GARCH-type models. We show that the cross-effects between the … volatility innovation on a conditional variance is even more persistent than the effect of an own innovation unless it is offset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010636810
The ranking of multivariate volatility models is inherently problematic because when the unobservable volatility is … the size of the distortion is strictly tied to the level of the accuracy of the volatility proxy. We propose a generalized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010608475
framework. This paper examines the ranking of multivariate volatility models in terms of their ability to forecast out … evaluate the distance between the true covariance matrix and its forecast. The evaluation of multivariate volatility models … requires the use of a proxy for the unobservable volatility matrix which may shift the ranking of the models. Therefore, to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008550212
We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009652126
We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010610494
The consistent ranking of multivariate volatility models by means of statistical loss function is a challenging … research field, because it concerns the quality of the proxy chosen to replace the unobserved volatility, the set of competing … realized covariance (RCOV), the proxy that generally provides a consistent estimate of the unobserved volatility. The aim of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010860339
It is well-known that the estimated GARCH dynamics exhibit common patterns. Starting from this fact we extend the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model by allowing for a cluster- ing structure of the univariate GARCH parameters. The model can be estimated in two steps, the first devoted to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009025296
In this paper we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH model extends the Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2005) by including...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056490
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037
returns and realized volatility (RV), and explore which features of that time-series model contribute to superior density … model of returns and volatility that features two components for log(RV) provides a good fit to Samp;P 500 and IBM data, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012723304