In this paper we use data from the Consensus Economics forecast poll to explore the strategic behavior of private sector forecasters with respect to forecasts published by the IMF and the OECD. We focus on four key macroeconomic variables for the G7 countries to analyze whether private sector...

In diesem Beitrag wird ein Währungskrisenmodell der zweiten Generation vorgestellt. Ein wesentliches Charakteristikum besteht darin, dass multiple Gleichgewichte auftreten können. Verändern sich die Erwartungen der rationalen Agenten, können plötzliche und starke Wechselkurssprünge...

The threat of deflation combined with the zero lower bound on interest rates has recently been intensely debated in economics. The consequences of a deflationary recession are manifold and severe as the Japanese example demonstrates. In this paper, we focus on the potential connections between...

In this paper, we use a structural vector autoregression model to identify and compare demand and supply shocks between euro area countries and central and eastern European countries (CEECs). The shocks and the shock adjustment dynamics of these countries are also compared to EU countries that...

This paper estimates reaction functions for the Federal Reserve and the Deutsche Bundesbank in the dollar-deutschmark market for the period 1979 - 1995 for which empirical studies have so far focused on Federal Reserve interventions. Applying a Logit model we examine whether the intervention...