We review our earlier studies that estimated the overall economic cost of the 9-11 attacks on New York City. Since the attack took place during a national and local recession, we emphasize the importance of controlling for economic conditions to obtain a precise estimate of the attack's effects....

This paper evaluates the use of measures of regional economic activity to forecast tax revenues for New York State and New York City at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons. We construct sales- and withholding-tax base series and then apply the methodology of Stock and Watson (1989, 1991) to estimate...

This paper examines the linkage between economic activity and tax revenues for New York State and New York City. Drawing upon the methodology of Stock and Watson, we use a dynamic single-factor model to estimate indexes of coincident economic indicators. We also construct measures of the sales...

The securities industry is more important than ever to the New York City economy, and a protracted downturn in the industry's employment could seriously hurt the overall job picture. Increased stability in other New York City industries, however, could help soften the economic effects of such a...

The price of vacant land in an urban area is a fundamental indicator of an area's attractiveness. However, because the value of vacant land is hard to measure, indirect methods are typically used to gauge prices. A more direct approach to measuring land prices, using a unique data set, reveals...

An analysis of employment and income trends suggests that the economic impact of the September 11 attack on New York City was somewhat less severe than originally thought. The attack created sizable job and income losses, but the city's current downturn appears to stem largely from other,...

This paper investigates the forecasting power of consumer sentiment for household expenditure. We compare the predictive power of two measures of consumer attitudes, and then further compare each survey's expectations component with one another, and with the broader sentiment measures. The...