) expectations - the “survey forecast error”. When it goes bad, then, psychology suggests that people could tend to become … sharp contrast with the maintained rational expectations hypothesis (REH) of most macro models. Monthly data over twenty …-two years reject the REH across ten European countries, supporting the psychological view on non-Muthian expectations. …

coincide. The analysis deals with three countries/economic areas: the Euro Area, Japan and the US and makes use of different …

This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We … not cause systematic distortions to aggregated survey information. However, micro level analysis of expectations would …

. Revisions of expectations generally lead to larger forecast errors. Subjective uncertainty measures, which are available at the …

inspired research on whether expectations are indeed formed rationally. Direct data on expectations are available mainly … expectations, on which the majority of empirical analyses of survey data are focused, are unbiasedness and orthogonality. We … analyze several sample balance statistics and expectations series based on quantified survey data, taking into consideration …