This paper develops a set of time series models to provide short-term forecasts (6 to 18 months ahead) of international trade both at the global level and for selected regions. Our results compare favourably to other forecasts, notably by the International Monetary Fund, as measured by standard...

This paper develops a model to estimate the effects of export subsidies on the supply of exports. Using data for Costa Rica over the 1980`s, it is shown that while the export subsidy scheme in operation led to an increase in exports, the direct fiscal costs of the scheme were quite large....

This study investigates the existence of day of the week effects on stock returns in the Colombian Stock Exchange (CSE) for the period between June 2001 and March 2005. The Bogotá Stock Exchange was established in 1928. However, the two other main bourses in the country merged with this in 2001...

The study aims to calculate Egypt’s real effective exchange rate at both the bilateral and multilateral levels, estimates the effect of real cross-rate movements on trade in goods and services and on foreign direct investment, and determines the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate for...

"Despite the common view that exchange rate volatility will inevitably depress the volume of international trade by increasing the riskiness of trading activity, empirical researchers have not found clear support for this relationship, with results being characterised as insignificant or where...

This article investigates empirically the effect of real exchange rate volatility on sectoral bilateral trade flows between the United States and its top 13 trading partners. Our investigation also considers those effects on trade flows that may arise through changes in income volatility and the...

This paper assesses the relevance of the competitiveness argument in the debate on the current situation of the Spanish economy. We estimate error-correction models for exports and imports. Econometric analyses suggest that external demand and domestic activity are the more important...

Empirical evidence obtained from data covering Eurozone countries, other industrialized countries, and newly industrialized countries (NICs) over 1980–2006 shows that exchange rate uncertainty has a consistent positive and significant effect on the volatility of bilateral trade flows. A one...