"This paper investigates the role of mismatch between job seekers and job openings for the forecasting performance of a labor market matching function. In theory, higher mismatch lowers matching efficiency which increases the risk that the vacancies cannot be filled within the usual period of...

"The geographical distribution and persistence of regional/local unemployment rates in heterogeneous economies (such as Germany) have been, in recent years, the subject of various theoretical and empirical studies. Several researchers have shown an interest in analysing the dynamic adjustment...

Since January 2005, pensions in Slovakia are operated by a three-pillar system proposed by the World Bank. The paper discusses and mathematically captures principles of the pension reform in Slovakia. We also discuss the impact of the reform on the deficit of the pension system. We mainly focus...

We study how the wealth-allocation decisions and the loss aversion of non-professional investors change subject to behavioral factors. The optimal wealth assignment between risky and risk-free assets results within a VaR portfolio model, where risk is individually assessed according to an...

Why do risk premia vary over time? We examine this problem theoretically and empirically by studying the effect of market belief on risk premia. Individual belief is taken as a fundamental state variables. Market belief is observable, it is central to the empirical evaluation and we show how to...

Conventional wisdom has it that Tobin's Q cannot help explain aggregate investment. This is puzzling, as recent evidence suggests the closely related user cost approach can do so. We do not attempt to explain this puzzle. Instead, we take an entirely different approach, not using the first-order...

Over the period 1875 to 1997, using the yield curve helps forecast real growth. Using both the level and slope of the curve improves forecasts more than using either variable alone. Forecast performance changes over time and depends somewhat on whether recursive or rolling out of sample...

This paper analyzes and quantifies ex ante components of bond yields - real rate of returns and risk premia - from observed prices of nominal and indexed bonds in the United Kingdom from 1983 to 2000. The estimation uses an asset pricing framework based on a habit consumption model together with...

Box-Jenkins models are subject to errors of identification, which makes caution advisable when interpreting articles that rely heavily on estimates from these models. This article provides a case study of one such instance, the modeling of consumer installment credit. The paper provides some...

This is a course material for an introductory course in Probability and Statistics for Engineering and Management. It is part of some course notes for my courses in Spanish on that subject. The draft of the book is Apuntes de Probabilidad y Estadiacute;stica para Ingenieriacute;a y...